Showing posts from 2018

Big Idea 12

This article contains PORTION of the information  from the 4th Scorecard Newsletter written on 27 Nov 2018 for my  Moat Scorecard  subscribers. Full disclosure  was provided for the Moat Scorecard subscribers.  This new Big Idea was stated in both my previous 3rd and 4th quarter reporting. But it has not been revealed yet. For the last post of 2018, I will be talking about this final Big Idea in my current portfolio. As I had already sold 2 big ideas previously, I currently have 10 big ideas that is based on my Big Ideas Investing Theory. Big Idea 12   is a new company in my portfolio since I only purchased it in October this year. Reasons Why This Counter Qualifies as a "Big Idea" 1. Great Balance Sheet Big Idea 12 Balance Sheet If you look at the balance sheet, you will be able to understand that the company has high cash, high current ratio, low leverage and low gearing. This just simply shouts that this is a very good balance sheet. 2. Free Cash Flow

My 15% Portfolio - End Of 2018 Record

I released my 2017 record on last year Christmas day. So I decide to release my 2018 record today. It has been a year. But what a year it has been! It was fantastic last year, but it is very bad this year. Basically since December last year till now, it has been a roller-coaster ride. This is how I feel As I was reading Simple Investor's review for 2018, it made me feel like "what have I done all these years"! He should have been the front for Fundamental Scorecard! In my view, he is someone whom is super discipline and thoroughly follows his own method - the Moat Scorecard. Nevertheless, I have to say I still prefer my current method of diversification through methods. Without further a do, lets take a look at my current stocks holdings... Prior to taking a look at the changes in my portfolio, let me emphasize on the following: 1. This portfolio review is calculated from 26 Dec 2017 and the aim is to review the total portfolio gain after 1 year. 2.

Who Let The Fed Out?

I woke up this morning to realized that the US market has fallen for 3 consecutive days. I seriously felt fine since I anticipate the drop in a post stated in November. But this time round, it hit me quite hard because I was going to do my review for year 2018 soon. Since my portfolio has consist of some US counters, my paper losses will be more huge. With that out of the way, I guess I felt really great moving into 2019. Whenever I look ahead, I felt kinda of excited and believe opportunities will arise especially for fundamental investors like me. For those that are still in the dark, I felt it is time to summarize what had happened in 2018: 1. Since Fed hired Jerome Powell as the Chair, he has been on track to increasing interest rates. 2. As interest rate increases, fixed deposit interest rate becomes higher. Investors started to move their funds into safer haven with some many crisis calls. Less traders were in the market. Banks also increased their fixed deposit inte

Ultimate Scorecard Will Have A Revamp!

This follows my previous post on back-testing. Ever since I started back-testing and read this article , I kept thinking about how I could further improve Ultimate Scorecard. Some of the improvements I feel that Ultimate Scorecard should achieve: - Too many choices may not be able to give the users the best choices - Different combination of criteria may not result in the best choices Furthermore, for such a year like 2018, the probability of choosing a company that will make a gain, after keeping for at least 4 months, has dropped very low to below 50%. In addition, I believe the timeline to keep the companies has rise from 4 months to more than 1 year. Imagine you bought the company on Dec 2017, there is a high probability you are still "out of money" after keeping for almost 1 year. So how do I intend improve Ultimate Scorecard? Before I proceed, it is important to note that I will keep Ultimate Scorecard "as it is". This is because

10 Years Of Back-testing on Different Investing Strategies

The whole of last week I have been back-testing my fundamental scorecard theories. This exercise allows me to review my scorecard and give me more confidence in my scorecard theories. This also give me additional confidence to address my subscribers and readers about the fundamental scorecard theories. I have broken down the scorecard theories into the following: Easiest to Pass Ultimate Scorecard Criteria Strategy Cash Strategy Value Investing Strategy Moat Strategy Growth Strategy Do note that this back-testing is based on at least 1 year of holding period. These are the findings of the back-testing exercise: 1. Regardless of which strategy you choose, your portfolio will reflect a loss in 2008, and a huge gain 2009 and then a slight gain in 2010. Furthermore, this will be the same regardless of where you invest (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or USA) . The interesting perspective is that the strategy with the smallest loss in 2008 is Value Investi

Big Idea 11

Okay… it has been almost 2 weeks since I wrote anything. It is easy to just state that I was busy. However, it is probably due to me, wanting so time off the market, in order to give myself a break from all the hectic work online and offline. Nevertheless, I continued to share on my Facebook page and significantly on our Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group . Thus, a lack of write up here does not meant that I have been on the sidelines. Thus, I had delayed the write up of Big Idea 11 up till now. Currently, as of this post, I had already mention about 11 big ideas despite my target to reduced number of companies in my portfolio. But do note that I had already fully sold Big Idea 4 and Big Idea 6 . Thus, I should only be holding 9 different big ideas. Big Idea 11 is a new company in my portfolio since I only purchased it in October this year. However, I used to talk about this company in this blog and had sold it at a 70% gain at the end of 2017. Reasons Why Th

Looming Crisis

This article contains information from the 3rd Scorecard Newsletter written on 30 Oct 2018 for my Moat Scorecard subscribers. However, do note that the future Scorecard Newsletter will be only created for the Moat Scorecard Subscribers. This 3rd issue was released earlier than usual because I want to release this information earlier to the public because I felt they are important and I had to inform the readers.  As of today, Straits Times Index is at 2966.45. The market had dropped 14.9% since the start of 2018. It has not only happening to Singapore Market, but also in Hong Kong, China and Japan Market. Hang Seng Index has fallen 19.4%, SSE Composite Index has fallen 23.3% and Nikkei Index has fallen 9.5% since the start of 2018. On the other hand, USA Market seems like nothing has happened. Dow Jones Index has only fallen 3.05%, Nasdaq Composite has only fallen 1.1%, and S&P 500 Index has also only fallen 3.3% since the start of 2018. Thus, if your portfolio is not

Fundamental Scorecard Is Already 1 Years Old!

Dear Readers, It has been some time since I wrote something on my blog. I had a very busy 2 weeks. Last Friday, Simple Investor and I had our FSC Exclusive Meet Up in celebration of Fundamental Scorecard being 1 year old! Firstly, we like to thank everyone whom came, especially those that came on VERY SHORT NOTICES. THANK YOU VERY MUCH! Secondly, this was a tab too late as Fundamental Scorecard had already been around since September last year. Nevertheless, we had a wonderful time and we hope everybody enjoyed as well.  At the Exclusive Meet Up, we asked for feedback in order to service you better and be able to produce products that you want. We had also announced our new Telegram Group to have a more intimate sharing of details with our subscribers and readers. In fact, anyone can join the Telegram Group. If you are interested to join, do click on this LINK . We also wanted to conduct full day courses and asked for suggestions. Hopefully what we eventually came up for

The Tech Powerhouse Face-off

This article contains information (except the companies' name) from the 2nd Scorecard Newsletter written on 29 Sep 2018 for my Moat Scorecard subscribers.  For the 2 nd issue of Scorecard Analysis, I like to bring you attention to 2 Tech Powerhouse listed in SGX – Company A  (Coy A) and Company B  (Coy B) . As taken from their website, this was how they describe their business: Company A “We are a precision engineering group which specializes in manufacturing high precision front-end semiconductor components and perform complex electromechanical assembly and final testing services. Included in our core business is the production of modular and integration systems for original semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Aside from semiconductor industry, we also cater to other industries including in electronic, machine tools, aerospace and oil & gas industries.” Company B “Coy B provides handling and test solutions to the most advanced manufacturers in the