Showing posts from February, 2020

Intrinsic Value - A Subjective Fake Motivation Number

I have been trying to come up with a way to calculate intrinsic value. Over the years, I developed many ways to find out the intrinsic value (Just read my blog, look at Fundamental Scorecard or look at Moat Scorecard) . However, as I get more involved in overseas companies, especially the US market, my thinking starts to evolve again. Don’t get me wrong. I still use my past methods on calculating intrinsic value for companies in SG and HK. However, they are not workable for US market. US market at times looks at more qualitative rather than quantitative. Many companies are what I deem as – a company with a story, not back by financials. Furthermore, I do not understand how can one hold a company who share price has grown for 10x for example. So recently my Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group had a discussion on Intrinsic value. Before I continue, please ensure that I do note that Intrinsic Value (V) is NOT EQUAL to Share Price (P). So back to the disc

Impact of Wuhan Virus

With uncertainty ahead of us due to the Wuhan Virus, I decided to relook at each of the company in my Crazy Portfolio. I intend to determine the impact of Wuhan Virus on their business. Eventually I will come up with some conclusion on each company on whether I intend to reduce, add or hold my position. Indication of Impact: No Impact < Min Impact < Partial Impact < Big Impact < Direct Impact SG Companies OCBC – Partial Impact due to Wing Hang and general market slowdown. But with Singapore as it’s base, revenue still supported. Consider Adding. Starhill – Min Impact . Only 1 property in Chengdu with 1 long term strategic client. Consider Adding. Straco – Direct Impact. All PRC parks closed since 25 Jan till End Feb (?). SG flyer Close since 25 Nov. 3 rd Quarter report show flat earnings, FCF still sustainable for current 3.5 cents dividend. 4 th quarter should still be 2.5 cents of dividend. But Q1 2020 will be heavily impacted and even wi