Showing posts from 2023

TUB Assert - Beng Kuang Marine's Financial Resurgence

Still Vested I have previously covered Beng Kuang Marine in several articles, and I'm excited to share the latest update on their financials. On August 11, 2023, the company released its six-month financial report, highlighting two crucial points: (1) Remarkably, the company has achieved a turnaround and generated a profit without relying on gains from shipyard sales. This outcome exceeded my expectations. The thriving FPSO and FSO market during the period of high oil prices, surpassing $100 per barrel, undoubtedly contributed to this success. Source: HY2023 Financials As quoted from the press release, "The Group’s IE continues to be its core revenue generator with revenue growth of 7.5% in 1H2023, with its 51%-owned subsidiary, Asian Sealand Offshore and Marine Pte Ltd (“ASOM”), being the main revenue contributor of IE’s 1H2023 sales as a result of increased business volume from higher demand for FPSO and FSO contracting services...ASOM has diversified its geographical sco

TUB Assert: Recession Fears Are Overblown

It's been quite some time since my last article, but I'm excited to share that I've been working on a new collaboration which is currently in progress. I appreciate your patience, and I promise that the details will be revealed in due time. In recent discussions with colleagues, the topic of recession has resurfaced. It can be challenging to express contrarian ideas, especially when working in the finance sector, as it's not always easy for people to believe alternative viewpoints. However, I firmly believe that we won't experience a recession on a global scale, similar to the one we faced in 2008/2009. I say this because I've personally experienced the depths of that economic downturn. I've dedicated a significant amount of my writing to explain why I hold this perspective, and I want to take this opportunity to remind everyone of my opinions on why a recession is unlikely: We are prepared: The fact that everyone is talking about a potential recession ind

TUB Assert - Beng Kuang Marine Turnover is Almost Complete!

Vested. I have previously written about Beng Kuang Marine (BKM) on two occasions. Following my February 2023 article , I stated that the industry outlook would be favorable for BKM. Subsequently BKM's share price rose from $0.049 to $0.072, a gain of 46%. BKM Share Price. Source: Yahoo Finance I also wrote a series of tweets on my Twitter account (follow me!) about oil prices, which I believe will remain at least flat until December 2024. This will further benefit BKM's business as more FPSOs will be brought to them for maintenance. However, after the article, the full year results were released and showed significant losses from operations. Equity fell from $18 million to $4 million. The current ratio was less than 1. BKM FY2022 Income Statement BKM FY2022 Balance Sheet But if we focus on the positives, net cash from operations was actually positive. Liabilities reduced, especially borrowings. And revenue increased. BKM FY2022 Cashflow Statement On April 12, 2023, BKM sold

TUB Assert - Tesla's Megapack Opportunity in the Solar Boom

In the course of my work, I have seen a sudden new strength and demand in the solar industry around late March to April of this year. This new demand is highly likely a realization after the Russia-Ukraine war. I still remember, after that realization, I checked the silver price. Technically, it was up year-to-date. Silver Price. Source: This was the same scenario for the silver mining companies. The previously undervalued ones had also gone up along with the silver price. Oh...If you still don’t know, silver is one of the main raw materials for solar panels. In fact, one of the main industrial uses for silver is in solar panels. Thus, I moved on from them and started looking at solar panel manufacturers and related companies in the industry. To be honest, their year-to-date charts did not show that they had risen significantly. But I remembered finding them too expensive from a valuation perspective. Basically, none of them had shown a significant fall from grace. Solar

TUB Path To 100% - May 2023

It has been some time since I last posted here, but rest assured that I have not been idle. For those who have been following my social media, you are likely aware that I recently authored a few articles on Seeking Alpha (Shared within this post) . If you haven't already, I invite you to follow me on my Seeking Alpha profile . Moving forward, my focus will be primarily on writing for Seeking Alpha, as it presents a fantastic opportunity for me to aim for the highest possible return in the shortest amount of time. However, I do plan to keep TUBInvesting alive and active. After all, it is where I began my journey . Going forward, I will be publishing 2 articles on TUBInvesting each month as part of two new series. The first series will be a monthly update, TUB Path To 100%.  It will document my journey towards recovering back to portfolio of 100%. The second series, TUB Assert , will feature special write-ups on companies, industries, or views that I find particularly compelling. As

Can Jay Chou Save GHY Culture and Media in FY2023?

If you are an investor interested in the media industry, you should consider GHY Culture and Media (SGX: XJB), which produces numerous dramas and films in countries like China, Singapore, and Malaysia. GHY's content is also featured on major video streaming platforms and TV networks in China. Additionally, the group has organized concerts for international artists in Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia. GHY's business comprises three main segments: TV Program and Film Production Costumes, Props, and Make-up Services and Talent Management Services Concert Production The most profitable and revenue-generating segment in 2022 was concert production. The company co-produced concerts for Power Station and Guns N' Roses in Singapore, and organized Jay Chou's Carnival World Tour (Singapore) concerts at the Singapore National Stadium on December 17 and 18, 2022.  Jay's Concert Poster. Source: GHY Website These events alone brought in S$20 million in revenue and over S$8 mill

Scammers Co-Opted My Alter Ego

It appears that scammers everywhere are exploiting my alternative persona to defraud individuals. Occasionally I elect to disregard them. However, the email below goes too far. It is literally contacting my partners and demanding that they forward this email to me. The S*** Email To My Partners This seems to be another one of the scams. S*** website Press Release on the S*** Website Moreover, when searching for "TUBInvesting" through Google, I previously discovered peculiar material relating to this blog. I recognize I have become a premier news source. News Article 1 News Article 2 News Article 3 The news reports originated from one of my affiliations tab beneath "Latest News" with PRNewswire. Presumably I shall retract them promptly. Screenshot of the Blog Tab Please be careful. If you need to contact me, there is a link on my blog on how to locate me. Stay Tuned.

The Arbitrage Opportunity on Movado Group (MOV) Stock

Typically, I avoid discussing strategies involving options due to the significant losses that can occur if the market moves against you. However, when the opportunity has a shallow risk profile, and the potential reward seems attractive, it warrants consideration. The current situation with Movado Group (MOV) is an arbitrage opportunity for investors. Source: The Watch Specialist Website MOV recently announced in-line earnings and declared a special dividend of $1 per share, along with its regular quarterly dividend of $0.35. The ex-dividend date is April 4, 2023, and the dividend payment date will be April 19, 2023. Usually, such an announcement would lead to a rise in the share price. However, Movado's lackluster guidance for the next quarter caused a 15% drop in its share price, presenting an intriguing entry point. As an illiquid small-cap stock, MOV's average daily volume is only 163,000 shares over the past year, less than the 500,000 share threshold for active trading.

Take Your Portfolio From The Sewers To Cybertron With IDW

Although returning to write on the Seeking Alpha platform presented a challenge, I was able to gather the motivation to share my thoughts on a micro-cap company. But the article was still rejected due to the limited liquidity of the stock. Rejection does not equate to failure; rather, it provides a chance to refine and create better content. Even though Seeking Alpha didn't publish my article, I've decided to share it here instead. Thank you for taking the time to read my work. The Company  IDW Media Holdings ( IDW ) is a leading American publishing company specializing in comic books, graphic novels, and trade paperbacks. Founded in 1999, IDW has built a reputation for producing high-quality, innovative content that appeals to a wide audience. With a focus on licensed properties and original titles, IDW has a portfolio of beloved brands that have captured the imaginations of readers around the world. These include the new Netflix hit Locke & Key, the ever-popular classic

Navigating the Current Financial Market: Implications for Investors

As we enter the second quarter of 2023, many investors may be confused about the current situation in the financial market. Inflation is on the rise, the Fed is continuing with its interest rate hikes as well as quantitative tightening, and banks are also facing liquidity and balance sheet issues. In this blog post, I will break down these factors and their implications for investors. Firstly, it is essential to note that while these factors may seem worrying, the risk of a recession remains low. Even if one were to occur, my opinion is that it would be a short-term V-shaped recovery. This conclusion is based on my observation that many investors and institutions had kept their funds on the sidelines due to the continuous interest rate hike. As a result, the Fed's reserve repo agreements have increased to over $2 trillion. This means that once interest rates decrease, investors/institutions will reverse their actions and start investing more aggressively (Previously mentioned in th

My Restart: Portfolio Updates and Investment Strategies

It has been a while since I last updated my portfolio on this blog, with the last update being in September 2022.  Firstly, I had a change in strategy with my editor, Ram, which took away some of my time. Additionally, my family requires more of my attention, especially my daughter who is turning 4, and my work in a startup never ends, leaving me with low energy levels by the end of the day. Unfortunately, this meant that I had to put a hold on uploading videos to my YouTube channel for now. I also wanted to explain 2 events that have occurred in my investing journey this year.  At the start of 2023, I sold all my stocks, not due to the market environment but solely to change my broker. This event took about 10 days and resulted in an opportunity cost of at least 10k due to missing out on gains. Despite this, I took the time to review my remaining investments, which accounted for only 40% of my initial investments.  As a result, I developed a new roadmap for selecting companies, whi

Beng Kuang Marine Poised for Growth as Offshore Oil Production Continues to Expand

Still Not Vested In my previous article , I have discussed Beng Kuang Marine, a company that offers maintenance services for Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels used in offshore oil production. According to Rystad Energy , an energy consultancy, offshore oil production sites are generally more expensive to build than onshore shale sites. However, once established, offshore sites can generate profits at lower prices compared to other forms of production. The average break-even price for producing offshore projects is $18.10 per barrel of oil equivalent, which is lower than the $28.20 per barrel break-even price for onshore production. While some sources on the internet suggest that the cost of offshore oil production could rise to as much as $50 per barrel, many operators are still ordering new FPSO vessels.  Source: Offshore Magazine In 2022, there were as many as 30 new FPSO orders, despite the fact that there are already 179 operating and available FPSO vessels

My (Current) Roadmap to Choosing Companies

To call the current market situation turbulent would be an understatement. And to understand why, you might want to read my articles “What is happening in the market?”  followed by “Recession coming” . To wade our way through this impending storm, we need a plan. Here is mine.  My primary objective will be to keep my portfolio as far out of the red as possible with companies that can take a hit, whist keeping an eye out for companies that may shoot to the moon after recession dwindles. To do that, I will be using 3 filters to differentiate companies into conservative, enduring ones and potential moonshots. If you’re on time, you can take a look at the diagram below. It summarizes my entire approach. Otherwise, a lengthier explanation can be found below the diagram.  The Roadmap Filter 1: Find Companies with a Competitive Edge Almost every company is going to have to take a hit, but only the ones with a competitive edge in their industry are going to be able to survive the hit. This cou

Fed Reverse Repo Again?!

  Hi everyone,  It’s me, TUB. I will like to thank all my readers, new and old, for staying with me. Special thanks goes out to uSMART Securities for sending me tasty new year bak kwa and auspicious red packets. May we huat (Hokkien for prosper) together this year! As you may or may not know, I have paying special attention to the Fed Reverse Repo agreement this year. Here are some key points to note.  Point 1: There is still US$2 trillion on the sideline. Point 2: The Fed Reserve Repo has fluctuated quite drastically. I’ve made content trying to explain when they were at milestone values of US$2.3 trillion on 29 December 2022 ( Link here ) and US$2.5 trillion on 30 December 2022 ( Post here ) . Now that it’s at US$2.17 trillion, I figured we’d make content about that too.  Source: Yahoo Finance It is important to note that the drop in Fed Reverse Repo coincides with a rise in the S&P500 index as well as the values of many smaller cap companies. To me, this means that market liqu

Side Hustling In 2023

Hi there,  A very happy 2023 to everyone. My name is Ram. If you’ve noticed a change in article tone and phrasing, that’s me. Originally a copywriter, I took an interest in finance — and was waddling through its shady, scary terrain before I met T.U.B and offered to write in exchange for him being my finance compass. Unlike T.U.B, my writing is more clunky. I like to use analogies and sometimes go a little too wild with them. The pieces from today will be an experiment in amalgamating our vastly different narrative style, and I would appreciate any comments them. And if you enjoy this style of writing, I do freelance, and you can contact me at Beyond our shared interest in finance, I think our passion for side hustling is what has made this partnership quite seamless so far. A wise man once said that “the only people who think that money is not the answer, are the ones who are running from problems or are the problem.” While not as extreme, we do believe t

All I Want For 2023 Is A Clean Slate

And to do that, I have 3 confessions to make. Confession 1: I am a contrarian.  And I will continue to be one until the day I stop investing. The intellectual challenge is to die for, and the excitement that comes with riding harder and more turbulent financial waves unparalleled. In the face of a 2023 recession that threatens to sweep away all our hard-earned capital gain, I proclaimed it as ungrounded chatter that will no sooner evaporate into thin air.  Here's why, click here and here . Confession 2: The analysts are starting to scare me. More and more financial institutions have raised the alarm for an impending recession, and I have to admit that it has shaken my resolve. But for a very different reason.  As a contrarian, I rely on cold hard logic especially in times of high stress. To the financial analysts running away from the potential economic tsunami, I say surf's up. Source: The Federal Reserve’s reverse repo agreement i