T.U.B Investing

To call the current market situation turbulent would be an understatement. And to understand why, you might want to read my articles “What is happening in the market?”  followed by “Recession coming” . To wade our way through this impending storm, we need a plan. Here is mine.  My primary objective will be to keep my portfolio as far out of the red as possible with companies that can take a hit, whist keeping an eye out for companies that may shoot to the moon after recession dwindles. To do that, I will be using 3 filters to differentiate companies into conservative, enduring ones and potential moonshots. If you’re on time, you can take a look at the diagram below. It summarizes my entire approach. Otherwise, a lengthier explanation can be found below the diagram.  The Roadmap Filter 1: Find Companies with a Competitive Edge Almost every company is going to have to take a hit, but only the ones with a competitive edge in their industry are going to be able to survive the...

With regards to my most recent strategy post - Pledge-Sell-Farm - someone by the nick of Corgitator actually wrote a long comment in InvestingNote  as per quoted below as well: "High conviction =/= high returns because hey, even the best investors make mistakes. In fact, it's the high conviction ideas that you get wrong which kill your portfolio (i.e. It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so). And if one is that certain that the company will definitely do well (nothing is definite though, investing is after all just a handicapping game), then just buying LEAPs on those companies will make you way more than writing puts and reinvesting the premiums in blue chips. Also, the strategy is what I call picking pennies in front of steamroller strategy (just like all naked option writing strategies and their variants). Your hit rate will be high, but when you do make a mistake, the damage is immense. Imagine this scenario:...

If you do not have FAANG in your portfolio, I guess your portfolio will be in the red. And it is damn red, like mine. In 2022, I believe the US market will also have significant volatility due to the tapering and potential interest rate rise. It may just continue to be range-bound. Many of us that invested in growth stocks will continue to be bag-holding. For those, like me, who also invested in the China Giants, will not know how long we need to be bag-holding as well. So what am I going to do? In 2022, I have decided to use part of my portfolio on this strategy where I will "Pledge, Sell and Farm".  It is a strategy that I innovated after watching Chicken Genius YouTube Video below. If you have not watch it yet, here it is.  Chicken Genius YouTube Video Screenshot The main idea is as follows: Pledge - Pledge a group of companies in our portfolio to ourselves for 1 year , which we do not mind liquidating if required after 1 year. If this sound stupid, the idea is just to t...

Short Post. So... I guess a lot has happened over the last few weeks, especially with CCP on the HK stock market and US market since earning season. My portfolio has been on stagnating for a while. For those that know how my fund is formed, I was told to be more aggressive. Thus, that is what will be happening - I will be making significant changes to my portfolio. I will be selling all my Singtel position (No worries, selling into gains) and also be selling UVE - a position that I finally decided its time to move on.  I will use the funds and average down into S$0.10 and Alibaba, as well as some of my US positions. Just felt I had to informed all. See you on the next post! More information on APPS are being shared in the Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group (please google for the links!). So if you are interested to know more, please join us in the Telegram Group.

2021 has started with a BANG and market has continued to rise from 2020 and into the new year.  For 2021, TUBInvesting Blog will be focus on my portfolio and companies within it. Since the pandemic, I had changed the way I invest. Basically, I step out of my comfort zone and change the way I invest. Personally, I felt I did well since the change in strategy. Therefore I am moving ahead with this strategy into 2021. The bottom is a new account I open as of Jun 2020 and I have returned over 31% (as of 17 Jan 2021). It is not all beautiful as I did cut losses on some companies I held. But basically, more wins than losses helped me achieved a satisfactory return. The strategy that I engaged in is shown below. In general, I will invest in a group of Dividend SG Companies that will bring about a stability in my portfolio, while I invest in Growth Companies and Cash-like feature companies in the US. I deem it as dual engine because:  I expect US Companies to be volatile but on a lon...

Yesterday, Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group had our 1 st webinar. It was a great success with over 90 participants. We had 4 prestigious speakers presenting on different topic.  XH / WolfofHougangStreet presented on his Simple Investing Framework. Its definitely a detailed framework to follow!  Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group Webinar – XH – SimpleInvesting Framework   Jimmy presented on portfolio management. There is always new stuff to learn! Wow! Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group Webinar – Jimmy – PortfolioManagement Kelvestor presented on Importance of Patience . This is definitely something I have to practise more often! Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group Webinar – Kelvestor – Importanceof Patience   John / Simple Investor spoke about The One Book All Investors Must Read. And it is not a story book! Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group Webinar – John / SimpleInvestor – The One Book All Investors M...

This follows my previous post on back-testing. Ever since I started back-testing and read this article , I kept thinking about how I could further improve Ultimate Scorecard. Some of the improvements I feel that Ultimate Scorecard should achieve: - Too many choices may not be able to give the users the best choices - Different combination of criteria may not result in the best choices Furthermore, for such a year like 2018, the probability of choosing a company that will make a gain, after keeping for at least 4 months, has dropped very low to below 50%. In addition, I believe the timeline to keep the companies has rise from 4 months to more than 1 year. Imagine you bought the company on Dec 2017, there is a high probability you are still "out of money" after keeping for almost 1 year. So how do I intend improve Ultimate Scorecard? Before I proceed, it is important to note that I will keep Ultimate Scorecard "as it is". This is because...

The whole of last week I have been back-testing my fundamental scorecard theories. This exercise allows me to review my scorecard and give me more confidence in my scorecard theories. This also give me additional confidence to address my subscribers and readers about the fundamental scorecard theories. I have broken down the scorecard theories into the following: Easiest to Pass Ultimate Scorecard Criteria Strategy Cash Strategy Value Investing Strategy Moat Strategy Growth Strategy Do note that this back-testing is based on at least 1 year of holding period. These are the findings of the back-testing exercise: 1. Regardless of which strategy you choose, your portfolio will reflect a loss in 2008, and a huge gain 2009 and then a slight gain in 2010. Furthermore, this will be the same regardless of where you invest (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or USA) . The interesting perspective is that the strategy with the smallest loss in 2008 is Value Investi...

Dear Readers, It has been some time since I wrote my last post. Thus, I will be consolidating many of my thoughts over this time in short articles below in this post. Happy Investors Despite A Bloody Market Picture taken from Moltey Fool STI had went down from over 3100 points to the current 3045 points as of today. Although you still seem to notice people stating that they had exit the market with “many bloody wounds”, but its seem that there are also many people looking forward to this drop. For myself, I basically went through excitement, panic and indifferent in a few days. Since then, I have stayed indifferent to all the market downturn as I felt maybe there are still many people looking to enter the market. On the other hand, my portfolio has since dropped about over 6.5% since 26 Dec 2017. This is almost similar with the drop in STI ETF (including dividend) . In any case, I am still not performing better than the market. But I believe I will get there. Anyway, I ...

This will be some sort of revelations for on my portfolio. I had never really documented down my long term returns as compared to the market. But while calculating today, I just felt maybe it will be good to put on the record of my past returns till 25 Dec 2017. Why 25 Dec 2017? If many of you remembered, I restarted my portfolio  on 26 Dec 2018. So from then on, the calculation restarted as well. Before I continue, I like to inform my readers that Simple Investor SG and I will be presenting our latest scorecard system at Invest Fair at Suntec tomorrow (25 Aug 2018) within the InvestingNote booth at 11am and 3pm. If you cannot make it for that timing, Don't Worry. We will still be there between 10am to 5pm on Saturday. Back to the main topic... In the past, I had 4 different portfolios to test out different strategies over different period of time. Thus, I will compare my long term returns (including dividend) against that of buying a STI ETF over a similar period. D...

Before we go into the actual discussion, I like to inform my readers that I am very privileged to be invited to be one of the speakers for the panel for "My First Stock Carnival Week - Different Investing Styles and Finding Your Ways" organised by SGX. I will like to thank Shanison of IN and SG Thumbtack Investor for the recommendation. Here is the link to register for the event and its FREE! I hope to see you there and do "direct" all the question you have for me, I will try my best to answer! So back to main topic of today - Dividend Yield. Recently while I was engage in some analysis, I realised dividend yield played a lesser role in my analysis currently as compared to my previous analysis.  Thus, it makes me wonder if dividend yield should be an important factor in our analysis? For example, if a company makes increasing revenue and net profit, but did not increase the dividend, should retail investors be angry with the firm? As mu...

Recently for my Big Idea 1 and Big Idea 3 , I have been talking about discovering "Moats" of the companies. But I am wonder if those information that I provided are really "moats"of a company? Or am I using this term too loosely? As per Investopedia   (do read this page for a much deeper understanding) , an economic moat is a competitive advantage that one company has over other companies in the same industry; this term was coined by Warren Buffett, a renowned investor and executive at Berkshire Hathaway. The wider the moat, the larger and more sustainable the competitive advantage of a firm. By having a well-known brand name, pricing power and a large portion of market demand, a company with a wide moat possesses characteristics that act as barriers against other companies. The website further explains that economic moat describes a company's competitive advantage derived as a result of various business tactics that allow it to earn above-average profits...

Sorry for the delay in writing, but I just came back from a trip in Beijing. I was expecting a culture shock but it turn out better than expected. Throughout the trip, I had learnt many interesting aspect of the city, such as the following: 1. Spitting on the ground is common. 2. Seem hard to get any taxi and train stations are quite a long walk away (Or maybe Singaporeans are just too pampered?) . End up becoming the "cabbage head" for other transport services. 3. You need to walk a lot, especially in the landmarks. Do need to look out for any trams. 4. Taobao has killed cheap clothing in the city. Shopping became quite boring. Only international/big brands that are not located within Taobao seem to have shops around. 5. High living standards. The food seem to cost as much as those in Singapore. 6. But it is still the ancient city with many landmarks not to be missed. 7. Security is a top priority in the city. Even train stations have checks. There are also a...

For readers who have been reading too much about Fundamental Scorecard website on my blog, such as the IN member below, I have to remind you that this article is again on Fundamental Scorecard website. Screenshot from IN However, for this post, I will explain in detail about the methodology of The Ultimate Scorecard – one of the scorecard database on the Fundamental Scorecard website . This will be useful to those who do not understand the criteria within the scorecard or are not familiar with the numbers. Having created the Value StockScorecard – the very 1st version – in March 2015, I realize I have yet to write in words about my scorecard methodology. Before I start, let me repeat that The Ultimate Scorecard is created based on value investing concepts and contrarian investing methods. So here are the thoughts that created The Ultimate Scorecard: 1. Cash Is King! You Cannot Deny It. In the recent market downturn, did you wish that you should have more cash on h...

This is just my thought process and I wanted it to be recorded down. In addition to what I wrote in the last post , I had a few more thoughts: 1. Every Counter Will Drop in a Market Downturn. When there is “blood on the ground”, every counter will be on a downtrend. The only difference is drop more or drop less. Cash will become the main call option at that point. 2. Diversify Less. This is my main problem. I am trying to reduce my counters to have a more concentrated portfolio. I still preferred a portfolio of 15 to 20 counters. 3. Invest in Great Companies at Fair Prices, not Fair Companies at Cheap Prices. In order to have a more concentrated portfolio, I have to invest only in Great Companies at Fair Prices. This was stated by Warren Buffett and repeated to me by Simple Investor SG . Eventually this will reduce my portfolio from falling too much in a major downturn. 4. Why Should Someone Subscribe To Fundamental Scorecard website during a Major Down...

I am not sure how you are feeling about this market correction, but I do feel pretty excited because I felt there will be more opportunities coming and I cannot wait for it. Nevertheless, I came out with a few thoughts on my own to keep myself in check. So here I goes: 1. Keep Calm and A Clear Mind Some people will feel scare, some will feel despair, some, like me, will feel excited. Regardless, I believe we should still try to keep calm and a clear mind. Focus on the necessary information and block out the “noises”. 2. Reduce Your Watchlist and Focus on Your Portfolio I removed all unnecessary counters in my watchlist. After all, I have been told too many times that my portfolio is too diversified. Thus, just focusing on my portfolio will be using up a lot of my time. 3. Focus on Individual Company and Not The Market If you focus too much on the market movement, such as STI, you will probably be too affected by the unnecessary “noises”. The first thin...

This is just a short post to emphasize on how my Fundamental Scorecard strategy works out. The global market (STI, Hang Seng Index and DJI) has become all red last Friday (2 February 2018). For my portfolio, I tend to break them into different segments. From all the segment shown below, you realized that only the Fundamental Scorecard segment did not have a counter that make losses. Do note that the change is calculated between the share price on 26 December 2017 and as of 2 February 2018: If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis , do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information!  Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page ( T.U.B Investing ) and follow me on InvestingNote .

As per Simple Investor SG Facebook Page , we had a very successful "Face to Face, Ask Us Anything" 1st session! We will definitely continue with this kind of event and we hope to see more participants coming for next few sessions! 1 particular topic that day really impacted me and that is "Concentration or Diversification" ? Simple Investor SG keeps only a handful of counters in his portfolio, while I currently hold about 25 counters in my portfolio. He always explains that he only invest in the top few companies that he determines. The quote he always use is "It is diworsification. Why bother with 7th best or the 8th best company, when you already knew which is your top company?" He tends to dig deep and find out as much as possible about the company prior to investing. Thus, he will only invest once he determines it is one of the best. I totally understand and believe in this theory. I had been wanting to do it, at least try to hold on to 15...

Updated: As pointed out by other readers, we can also choose to invest in ABF SG Bond ETF. It is an ETF bond fund in Singapore. It tracks a basket of high-quality bonds issued primarily by the Singapore government and quasi-Singapore government entities. This is a request from my reader/subscriber of Fundamental Scorecard website. She wanted to diversify into bonds. But she has not much idea about bonds other than Singapore Saving Bonds (SSB) . To clarify, my knowledge on bonds are very shallow. Pardon me if I made any mistake in writing of this article. Feel free to comment on any mistake I wrote in the comments below. For me, I seem to have a similar issue with my reader. My portfolio consist of about 40% to 50% cash at the start of 2018 (After restarting my portfolio and selling various counters at the end of 2017) and I wanted to find another way to diversify. This is because I felt the equities market is slightly too bullish for my current liking. If you wa...