Showing posts from December, 2018

Big Idea 12

This article contains PORTION of the information  from the 4th Scorecard Newsletter written on 27 Nov 2018 for my  Moat Scorecard  subscribers. Full disclosure  was provided for the Moat Scorecard subscribers.  This new Big Idea was stated in both my previous 3rd and 4th quarter reporting. But it has not been revealed yet. For the last post of 2018, I will be talking about this final Big Idea in my current portfolio. As I had already sold 2 big ideas previously, I currently have 10 big ideas that is based on my Big Ideas Investing Theory. Big Idea 12   is a new company in my portfolio since I only purchased it in October this year. Reasons Why This Counter Qualifies as a "Big Idea" 1. Great Balance Sheet Big Idea 12 Balance Sheet If you look at the balance sheet, you will be able to understand that the company has high cash, high current ratio, low leverage and low gearing. This just simply shouts that this is a very good balance sheet. 2. Free Cash Flow

My 15% Portfolio - End Of 2018 Record

I released my 2017 record on last year Christmas day. So I decide to release my 2018 record today. It has been a year. But what a year it has been! It was fantastic last year, but it is very bad this year. Basically since December last year till now, it has been a roller-coaster ride. This is how I feel As I was reading Simple Investor's review for 2018, it made me feel like "what have I done all these years"! He should have been the front for Fundamental Scorecard! In my view, he is someone whom is super discipline and thoroughly follows his own method - the Moat Scorecard. Nevertheless, I have to say I still prefer my current method of diversification through methods. Without further a do, lets take a look at my current stocks holdings... Prior to taking a look at the changes in my portfolio, let me emphasize on the following: 1. This portfolio review is calculated from 26 Dec 2017 and the aim is to review the total portfolio gain after 1 year. 2.

Who Let The Fed Out?

I woke up this morning to realized that the US market has fallen for 3 consecutive days. I seriously felt fine since I anticipate the drop in a post stated in November. But this time round, it hit me quite hard because I was going to do my review for year 2018 soon. Since my portfolio has consist of some US counters, my paper losses will be more huge. With that out of the way, I guess I felt really great moving into 2019. Whenever I look ahead, I felt kinda of excited and believe opportunities will arise especially for fundamental investors like me. For those that are still in the dark, I felt it is time to summarize what had happened in 2018: 1. Since Fed hired Jerome Powell as the Chair, he has been on track to increasing interest rates. 2. As interest rate increases, fixed deposit interest rate becomes higher. Investors started to move their funds into safer haven with some many crisis calls. Less traders were in the market. Banks also increased their fixed deposit inte

Ultimate Scorecard Will Have A Revamp!

This follows my previous post on back-testing. Ever since I started back-testing and read this article , I kept thinking about how I could further improve Ultimate Scorecard. Some of the improvements I feel that Ultimate Scorecard should achieve: - Too many choices may not be able to give the users the best choices - Different combination of criteria may not result in the best choices Furthermore, for such a year like 2018, the probability of choosing a company that will make a gain, after keeping for at least 4 months, has dropped very low to below 50%. In addition, I believe the timeline to keep the companies has rise from 4 months to more than 1 year. Imagine you bought the company on Dec 2017, there is a high probability you are still "out of money" after keeping for almost 1 year. So how do I intend improve Ultimate Scorecard? Before I proceed, it is important to note that I will keep Ultimate Scorecard "as it is". This is because

10 Years Of Back-testing on Different Investing Strategies

The whole of last week I have been back-testing my fundamental scorecard theories. This exercise allows me to review my scorecard and give me more confidence in my scorecard theories. This also give me additional confidence to address my subscribers and readers about the fundamental scorecard theories. I have broken down the scorecard theories into the following: Easiest to Pass Ultimate Scorecard Criteria Strategy Cash Strategy Value Investing Strategy Moat Strategy Growth Strategy Do note that this back-testing is based on at least 1 year of holding period. These are the findings of the back-testing exercise: 1. Regardless of which strategy you choose, your portfolio will reflect a loss in 2008, and a huge gain 2009 and then a slight gain in 2010. Furthermore, this will be the same regardless of where you invest (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or USA) . The interesting perspective is that the strategy with the smallest loss in 2008 is Value Investi