T.U.B Investing

Recession/Stagflation is Coming!  First and foremost, I believe I was wrong when I stated that there is no recession .  But what exactly is a recession? How do you know a recession is on its way? Negative growth for 2 quarters? Do you understand what a recession is? Have you tried applying for jobs for more than a year and still have no work, and you need the government to step in to ensure that there is at least 1 job that is sponsored by them and only pays S$2k for 1 year? I DID. In addition, I had to pay my tuition loan at that time ON MY OWN.  So really, I don't think many of you understand recession at this point. Ever Been Thru the Cycle where Oil went from $4 to $20? Yes, clearly someone did, and the message was relayed to me. I was advised to SELL EVERYTHING. The war is mostly to blame for the rise in oil prices. Even after the war is over, oil prices will remain high due to sanctions. This will lead to ongoing inflationary pressures and, eventually, higher intere...

Short post. In my post on having " No Recession ", I mention that "Money is a flowing concept". However, there is an article lately on the drop in NFT Volume  in Mar 22 when compared against Jan 22. There were further information from TheBlockCrypto on the drop in NFT transactions and volume as shown in the graphs below. Graph taken from TheBlockCrypto Website So, since NFT transactions have decreased, does this imply that demand for alternative assets will decrease as well, potentially leading to a crash? Is it possible that a prospective recession is on the list if that's the case? In addition, where has the money gone? I will try to provide my opinions on the questions. 1. Will there be a crash in NFT? I don't think I'll be able to make any predictions in the near future. However, if one believes in the NFT's functionality, there is a good probability that prices will rebound in the future. 2. Will there be a Recession? I stand by what I said in ...

The market has already gone upwards, so this post may be a little late. However, I'd like to share some of my ideas on the current economic situation. There was many discussion about recession fears lately, even at my work place. In my opinion, there will be no recession because many firms are still developing or contributing to society in some way. Goods are still in high demand. In addition, if there is a crash, the alternative investment should crashes first - which I have yet to notice. My view is that there is still a lot of money out there, probably staying on the sidelines or "stuck" in investment that may not be as liquid,  such as NFT and Cyptocurrency. Personally I do not think money will really be destroyed. To me, money is a flowing concept.  The volatility or the sudden lack of liquidity in various investments over the last 2 years has been a result of the massive quantity of money rotating, from one type of investment to another. Information taken from CBIns...

I just like to announced that I have made the move to having a Custom Domain!  Haha... it sure took a long while before I do that. Been advised by many to make this change, but I have been delaying. Nevertheless, I wanted to be "a bit" more serious about my writing. So decided this was the time to make the changes. However, My Google Adsense Account has not been reflecting well on this custom domain and its not showing up. If anyone can help, do comment. I read that I needed to wait 45 days and then reapply to my Google Adsense account. Hopefully things work out eventually. Do note that I do not earn much from the Google Adsense Account. I have received very very very very little only for so many years of writing. But every cent counts right? Anyway, there will probably more updates in the future on my plans.  See ya!

Basically lately I had a poll in 2 different telegram groups - Fundamental Scorecard (my own's Telegram) and Invest for the Long Term (Boon Tee's Telegram Group) .  I was questioning if a company culture is an important factor in our investment thesis.  The main reason behind the question was that I used to look at Glassdoor rating as a consideration when I was choosing a company. But recently, there is a company that I was interested in that had a very bad Glassdoor Rating. That made me wonder if I should ignore it. Result from "Invest for the Long Term" Result from "Fundamental Scorecard" Thus, the poll results shows that more than 50% of Investors that participated in the poll stated that at least a company culture will have at least a 50% weightage in their investment decision making . This mean that if a company has a bad culture, technically you will ignore it. Nevertheless, the argument against the results were also significant - meaning it does not...

The investing world has become ridiculous. The economy and the market is no longer moving in concurrence. As of 2021, it become so obvious the retail investors are at the mercy of the institutions, hedge funds, and investment banks. When the men in suits decide to sell growth buy value, the whole market change. Then came the bitcoin rising to over $50k and then dropping to $30k Then I heard people started losing money. 10k, 30k, 50k, 100k, etc. Then now it is back to almost 40k.  On a side note, do you really know what bitcoin is being used for? Why does everyone always forget about the most basic fundamental question?  Oh…and then I recently realized someone went into a scam. He can still tell me – “oh I don’t know anything on the finance portions. I leave it to the broker.” Omg… Then, when I speak to some of them, I will try to find out how I can help. I give them some guides. Eventually I will also ask them if they want to try Fundamental Scorecard. Then the...

Warning: This post is not for you if you do not have an open mind. Aside to the regulars readers, I don’t know what came over me recently. Maybe I am older now. So I am more confrontational. If I think I am right, unless proven I am wrong, then I think it is very important to stand by what I said. On my last post, there are some hate coming from various channels on my observation and opinions on Palantir. I did not expect this much hate from my current post as compared to some of my previous posts. Thus, I felt its important to clarify. But I am not trying to clarify to justify my piece. It is for (1) I think I need to record this down as a post for myself to remember and (2) I think its important to let people understand that ignorance is NOT bliss when it comes to investing. Then again, if you are don’t mind being an average, you can continue to think ignorance is bliss. And then again, if you want to be an average, why not just focus on the index funds or Ark Invest? Don...

There has been a lack of write up or sharing since end March 2021. Maybe it was the packed 1 st quarter I had – Reviewing companies, writing posts, the rise and fall of market during the same period of time, the significant high number of collaborations here and there during the 1 st quarter, as well as my full time job. I have been feeling a bit of market fatigue since end Mar 21 – the end of 1 st quarter. Basically, I am just not able to generate enough passion/energy to follow and update of the market. At times, I felt I should be investing ALL MY EXCESS CASH and then wait till a few months or even a year, and then go back to look at the market.  This is because I know the companies I have are amazing. I have also been reducing and consolidating my holdings – trying to just hold onto my highest conviction companies. Another point to note is that I have yet to sell any of CRNC , APPS , AZT and NIO since I wrote about them. In fact I added more . This is because I kno...

Sometimes, I blame myself for not being successful enough. Because if you are, maybe more people will listen to you. In Sep 2020, I put out a few post to inform people not to ignore STI ETF. 5 Sep 2020 -  The Risk Of Passive Investing In ETF 8 Sep 2020 -  If I Had To Choose - STI ETF or One of its Components? If you had enter on 4 Sep, you will be sitting on around 12% gain in almost 2.5 months? On 24 Sep 2020, I had also inform readers of my actions to purchase more US Stocks . Since then US stocks has made an amazing comeback! On 27 Oct 2020, I also inform readers of my thoughts of using SG as a hedge to my US Stocks. I also informed them to enter slow and steady, with caution. If any one of you had read and taken action, please comment on the post, on my FB page or just share this post. The fact is if anyone had taken action, they will be sitting on some gains now. But if you are in FOMO (Fear of missing out) mode, please switch out that mode and look at your cash pile. It...

When do you realise you were in love with a company:  when the analysis you did was full of risks and you said its seem fine,  when the competitor share price beats 52 week high and your company is flat maintaining 52 weeks low, and you said fine, when you said their new business has some sort of potential and you are willingly to wait for it, when you realise you may want to sell and you feel you felt so heartbroken, when you know this is the US market and you keep saying their quantitative numbers are significant undervalued. Yes. I will do it tonight. Bye bye my beloved. Nevertheless, it really makes me feel LIKE SHIT yesterday and last night I went on a spending spree . Sounds like someone who is trying to walk out of a heartbreak.  Everything started yesterday as I wrote out my thoughts which I shared with my Fundamental Telegram Group Members and on my TUBInvesting Facebook . "Good morning everyone, just some thoughts... I dont know why the US market is still so r...

I have receive lots of comments on InvestingNote on my previous post . It made me realise that I have taken too little risk. I have also complicate matters by my formula. So I have made changes and revamped the plan. This should help everyone to understand my plan better. 1. I will borrow 3Y for 6 months for the initial balance transfer. 2. I will pay A for 5 months to reduce the outstanding. Note that Y=5A (It should not be 6A because you run the risk of not paying in the last month). 3. Roll over 2Y for another 6 months for the subsequent balance transfer. 4. Continue to pay A to reduce the subsequent balance transfer. 5. Place Y into SSB to offset some of the processing fee in both the balance transfer.  Thus, it is important to ensure that Y should be below your monthly gross pay. A should be about 15% of your gross pay. Do note that the main risk of this plan is losing your job. Therefore, if your job is unstable now, please DO NOT ENGA...

To update all readers, the plan has already been carried out. I continued to have friends, whom advised me against carrying out the plan, as well as some others whom have carried out their own leverage plan. Just to emphasize I will not be going ahead with margin or leverage lending. I prefer to borrow a fixed sum with a discipline way of repayment. This will allow me to plan better. Basically I did a fund transfer with Standard Chartered Promotion of 1% of processing fee for 6 months without any other cost. And this is the plan of repayment: 1. I have "X" amount for investment. 2. I will place "X" into Singapore Saving Bonds. 3. I will borrow through Fund Transfer 1 for the amount of "X+Y" for 6 months. 4. The portion "Y" will be repaid via monthly injection of cash amount "A" over 6 months. 5. In the event the market recovers in 6 months, I will take out "X" from Singapore Saving Bonds and repaid the o...

After my last post, I have many friends that told me to not proceed with the plan. I also have friends asking me about rates and from which bank I am getting the loan from. I will need to be upfront with all the readers, as I told one of them: "I agree that if there is no need to leverage, then better not to leverage. In fact I don't encourage this as well. In almost all my courses, I already stated at the start of each course that we should only invest with disposable cash, so no irrational thoughts will occur." However, due to the recent downturn, I also have thoughts that if I have the ability (in terms of future cashflow) and already the cash to pay off the amount I leverage, then I should be fine. To be honest, this is similar to taking up a property loan. Just that a bit on the short term. So what I found out and I intend to do? After researching, I will be doing fund transfer as I found some banks offering 0% to 3% EIR/processing fee. Eventually, I w...

Yes. I am almost 100% vested todate and it is frustrating. You will have thought that the vast amount of experience I gain over the years will be able to carry me through this downtrend. But no, at this point in time, the little cash I have left with make me doubt myself at times. This is especially so, when you know US market will fall more after New York declared a state of emergency. So what did I do? I wrote down all on companies I have on a piece of paper and stay away from all share price information. Then I decide which company in my portfolio I will want to add, hold or sell/reduce. I realize I tend to remember the most important points of each company during this exercise. This point will eventually be the main reason why I bought in the first place and my subsequent action. Next, I determine the cash I have if all selling actions are completed. After that, I filter out those companies that will recover the fastest or had declared dividends that will eventually ...

Hi all, Sorry for the long absent. Being a dad now to a 3 month old new born, time is probably one of the most precious resource now and in future. Taking on a new job for the last 4 months has also been quite tough. You realize, again, that it is hard to make everyone happy. When you constantly hit a brick wall at work, you will be amazed at how fast the "fire in the belly" get extinguish. With those thoughts, you start to question what do you want to achieved in life? Especially with the T.U.B Investing blog and Fundamental Scorecard. To be honest, I am just an ordinary folk who works a 8 to 6 job and hope to win Toto every single week. I am not a wealthy nor a rich folk and I stay in a four room flat like you. I take the MRT to work and do not have a maid. With my family, I just want to bring joy and happiness to their life. At work, I just hope to value add to my company. Through these years of writing my blog, starting Fundamental Scorecard, starting the ...

I have been thinking about what to write lately. But I seem to have ran out of ideas, although I also have a lot of other things on my mind (more on this later) . Investing Is Getting Boring Since engaging in Big Ideas Investing Theory, I found myself no longer affected by daily news unless it relates to my targets or companies with my portfolio. In addition, I felt rather muted now that the market is rising. I feel like I am watching a soap opera when I look at the stock market. Is this why Gurus says “investing is watching the paint dry”? Should I Follow Them? Looking at the blogsphere, I also realized that there are prominent bloggers that have stopped writing. This has been picked up by Chris of Trees of Prosperity  . I actually had that thought too. Currently, I am managing a Telegram Group, FB Page, InvestingNote Profile, Fundamental Scorecard Website and Moat Scorecard on Investing Note. If readers like to know more about me, there is no lac...

Dear Readers, It has been some time since I wrote something on my blog. I had a very busy 2 weeks. Last Friday, Simple Investor and I had our FSC Exclusive Meet Up in celebration of Fundamental Scorecard being 1 year old! Firstly, we like to thank everyone whom came, especially those that came on VERY SHORT NOTICES. THANK YOU VERY MUCH! Secondly, this was a tab too late as Fundamental Scorecard had already been around since September last year. Nevertheless, we had a wonderful time and we hope everybody enjoyed as well.  At the Exclusive Meet Up, we asked for feedback in order to service you better and be able to produce products that you want. We had also announced our new Telegram Group to have a more intimate sharing of details with our subscribers and readers. In fact, anyone can join the Telegram Group. If you are interested to join, do click on this LINK . We also wanted to conduct full day courses and asked for suggestions. Hopefully what we eventually came up ...

This post was actually named as "Crazy Crazy Asian". This is because I am not rich YET . But I am sort of crazy. That is what some of my friends said about me. Firstly, they commented that there is no logic in my recent choice of employment. "So you went from a bank to a FI and now a fintech... this is not a path one will take." Next, they asked me, "how did you find time for all these other stuff I am doing?" Other stuff: Being a blogger, an investor, intending to have a fund, a co-founder to fundamental website, doing all sort of seminar, and also all these collaboration. Finally they commented that every crazy move has a plan. But my moves seem to be all over the place. After hearing about all these comments and some self reflection, I do realize that I am quite CRAZY . Thus the term - "Crazy Crazy Asian". I do seem to be taking on the road less traveled. In fact, I believe only a few traveled. But where is the destinatio...

There is just not enough time for the roles that I am currently taking on – Blogger, Co-founder of Fundamental Scorecard and Investor/Fund Manager. Furthermore, I will also be working in a new fintech environment next month. With this change, I am trying to catch up on my reading to gain more knowledge in this new area. This is a new challenge for me and I am really looking forward to it. And… I will also be having a new collaboration soon! With limited resources (time) , I seem to be too diversified - similar to my past portfolio. With each additional role, less time is spent in the previous role, resulting in producing lower quality "products". If I want to improve, I will need to be more focus. With this new perspective, I decided that I will be putting more effort towards my Fundamental Scorecard subscribers as well as on the new collaboration that I am working on. (For the new offerings, I guess only the subscribers will eventually know.) NEVERTHELESS, THI...

This is another short post and it is more of a personal matter/opinion. Nowadays, if people contact me on LinkedIn or if I went for a chat on a new role, I am very upfront in telling them that "I am a financial blogger and I will like to continue writing". However, I realised this has become a deterrence for me to proceed further with the chat or with the people who contacted me on LinkedIn. I can sort of understand why people prefer not to hire bloggers - Because they do not know what we will eventually write about and whether we will be revealing any insider's news on our blog. For my current employer, I am not sure if they knew that I am a blogger. However, I did not reveal this at the initial chat because I just started blogger for about 1 year then. But now that I appear in public for some of the seminars, I believe I should be upfront about this hobby of mine. Nevertheless, it seems like this form of honesty and integrity has not much value a...