T.U.B Investing

It's been quite some time since my last article, but I'm excited to share that I've been working on a new collaboration which is currently in progress. I appreciate your patience, and I promise that the details will be revealed in due time. In recent discussions with colleagues, the topic of recession has resurfaced. It can be challenging to express contrarian ideas, especially when working in the finance sector, as it's not always easy for people to believe alternative viewpoints. However, I firmly believe that we won't experience a recession on a global scale, similar to the one we faced in 2008/2009. I say this because I've personally experienced the depths of that economic downturn. I've dedicated a significant amount of my writing to explain why I hold this perspective, and I want to take this opportunity to remind everyone of my opinions on why a recession is unlikely: We are prepared: The fact that everyone is talking about a potential recession ind...

As we enter the second quarter of 2023, many investors may be confused about the current situation in the financial market. Inflation is on the rise, the Fed is continuing with its interest rate hikes as well as quantitative tightening, and banks are also facing liquidity and balance sheet issues. In this blog post, I will break down these factors and their implications for investors. Firstly, it is essential to note that while these factors may seem worrying, the risk of a recession remains low. Even if one were to occur, my opinion is that it would be a short-term V-shaped recovery. This conclusion is based on my observation that many investors and institutions had kept their funds on the sidelines due to the continuous interest rate hike. As a result, the Fed's reserve repo agreements have increased to over $2 trillion. This means that once interest rates decrease, investors/institutions will reverse their actions and start investing more aggressively (Previously mentioned in th...

  Hi everyone,  It’s me, TUB. I will like to thank all my readers, new and old, for staying with me. Special thanks goes out to uSMART Securities for sending me tasty new year bak kwa and auspicious red packets. May we huat (Hokkien for prosper) together this year! As you may or may not know, I have paying special attention to the Fed Reverse Repo agreement this year. Here are some key points to note.  Point 1: There is still US$2 trillion on the sideline. Point 2: The Fed Reserve Repo has fluctuated quite drastically. I’ve made content trying to explain when they were at milestone values of US$2.3 trillion on 29 December 2022 ( Link here ) and US$2.5 trillion on 30 December 2022 ( Post here ) . Now that it’s at US$2.17 trillion, I figured we’d make content about that too.  Source: Yahoo Finance It is important to note that the drop in Fed Reverse Repo coincides with a rise in the S&P500 index as well as the values of many smaller cap companies. To me, this mea...

And to do that, I have 3 confessions to make. Confession 1: I am a contrarian.  And I will continue to be one until the day I stop investing. The intellectual challenge is to die for, and the excitement that comes with riding harder and more turbulent financial waves unparalleled. In the face of a 2023 recession that threatens to sweep away all our hard-earned capital gain, I proclaimed it as ungrounded chatter that will no sooner evaporate into thin air.  Here's why, click here and here . Confession 2: The analysts are starting to scare me. More and more financial institutions have raised the alarm for an impending recession, and I have to admit that it has shaken my resolve. But for a very different reason.  As a contrarian, I rely on cold hard logic especially in times of high stress. To the financial analysts running away from the potential economic tsunami, I say surf's up. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD The Federal Reserve’s reverse repo ...

Note: I am not trying to spread FUD here. I am just doing some research and thought it was a good topic to write about. To combat inflation, the Fed has been raising rates. The current Federal Reserve rate ranges from 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. The Fed is expected to raise  rates from 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent by the end of 2022. This has resulted in a bear market in the United States and predictions of a possible recession. As a result, investors are seeking a safe haven in which to invest. The STI Index is seen as a safe haven by some. This is implied by the 0.63 percent YTD decrease in the STI vs. the 19.3 percent drop in the SPY ETF, as shown below. SPY vs STI. Screenshot from Yahoo Finance My Chain of Thoughts: 1. Many investors are drawn to the SG market because of the prospective dividend payout. Currently, based on its current price, STI provides a potential 3% dividend yield .  2. SSB is now giving 2% for a one-year holding period and 3% for a ten-year holding pe...

Recession/Stagflation is Coming!  First and foremost, I believe I was wrong when I stated that there is no recession .  But what exactly is a recession? How do you know a recession is on its way? Negative growth for 2 quarters? Do you understand what a recession is? Have you tried applying for jobs for more than a year and still have no work, and you need the government to step in to ensure that there is at least 1 job that is sponsored by them and only pays S$2k for 1 year? I DID. In addition, I had to pay my tuition loan at that time ON MY OWN.  So really, I don't think many of you understand recession at this point. Ever Been Thru the Cycle where Oil went from $4 to $20? Yes, clearly someone did, and the message was relayed to me. I was advised to SELL EVERYTHING. The war is mostly to blame for the rise in oil prices. Even after the war is over, oil prices will remain high due to sanctions. This will lead to ongoing inflationary pressures and, eventually, higher intere...

Short post. In my post on having " No Recession ", I mention that "Money is a flowing concept". However, there is an article lately on the drop in NFT Volume  in Mar 22 when compared against Jan 22. There were further information from TheBlockCrypto on the drop in NFT transactions and volume as shown in the graphs below. Graph taken from TheBlockCrypto Website So, since NFT transactions have decreased, does this imply that demand for alternative assets will decrease as well, potentially leading to a crash? Is it possible that a prospective recession is on the list if that's the case? In addition, where has the money gone? I will try to provide my opinions on the questions. 1. Will there be a crash in NFT? I don't think I'll be able to make any predictions in the near future. However, if one believes in the NFT's functionality, there is a good probability that prices will rebound in the future. 2. Will there be a Recession? I stand by what I said in ...

The market has already gone upwards, so this post may be a little late. However, I'd like to share some of my ideas on the current economic situation. There was many discussion about recession fears lately, even at my work place. In my opinion, there will be no recession because many firms are still developing or contributing to society in some way. Goods are still in high demand. In addition, if there is a crash, the alternative investment should crashes first - which I have yet to notice. My view is that there is still a lot of money out there, probably staying on the sidelines or "stuck" in investment that may not be as liquid,  such as NFT and Cyptocurrency. Personally I do not think money will really be destroyed. To me, money is a flowing concept.  The volatility or the sudden lack of liquidity in various investments over the last 2 years has been a result of the massive quantity of money rotating, from one type of investment to another. Information taken from CBIns...