Showing posts from 2022

Free Cash Flow Is Going To Cost You

Investing can feel like you’re at war sometime. And while there are no silver bullets that can help you choose the best company to invest in, many (claim to) have found potent ammunition in free cash flow (FCF) .   FCF refers to the cash, a company has remaining after deducting its capital expenditure, that can be used to repays creditors, or as dividends to investors. At the risk of oversimplifying this, it generally measures what a company can return to its equity investors, if it has no debt — which is exactly what you are looking for as an investor. FCF is also a widely used metric in investment banks and hedge funds, making it seem like a reliable weapon to add to your arsenal for financial analysis.  Source: Yahoo Finance To me, it sounds more like a glamorous piece of silver laid in front of a trap. Just look at the top ad tech firms over the past 3 years. By accounting for this “trap”, many of the most attractive companies to invest in, such as The Trade Desk, sink into complet

Restarted My YouTube Journey

This is another delay in the write up. I was quite sick lately so there was a delay in everything I do. Still sick now, but slightly better. Its been 2 weeks since I started coughing (Not covid - tested numerous times) . Its probably due to stress at new work place, world cup late nights, my RED portfolio and restarting my YouTube Journey . Before I continue, please let me do a shout out to uSMART Securities . Really appreciate their gesture in sending me this Christmas log cake! Christmas Log Cake from uSMART Securities Currently they are running this interesting promotion: [If new subscriber] Sign up on the platform through my referral LINK .  [If existing subscriber] Then express your interest to participate in this new promotion by clicking here -  uSMART Interest Reward Promotion ! uSMART Interest Reward Promotion Now for the updates on my YouTube Channel.  This time round, I want to focus on small/micro/nano cap companies which I believe the market has inaccurately punished them

What Is Happening In The Market?

Before I start, I just want to put this picture here. So that I can remember this day as one of my heaviest holding went up 60% in a day!  Digital Turbine Share Price Gain on 11/11/2022 Nevertheless, this also highlights the current situation in the market. The market is very volatile due to the macro environment. On a day that CPI increase lower than expected, along with a better than expected result, allow Digital Turbine to increase over 50% today. But a drop of 20% could also happen if companies did not performed better than expected and if the CPI data comes in worse than expected. This brings me to today's topic - What is really happening in my opinion? 1. Fed Repo Rate, which I deem as Risk Free Rate, is over 4%. Everyone expects Fed to continue to increase interest rate, which will continue to push up the Risk Free Rate. Companies, banks and institutions probably deem that the Risk Premium of holding onto equity might be too risky. Valuation of companies also tends to drop

Bag-holding Company 2: FuboTV Inc (FUBO)

For this series' 2nd post, I wanted to write about a different company. However, I was inspired to write about FUBO instead. After all, it is one of the companies on my old 10X Potential Series. Ironically, the only two companies in my 10X Potential series were the 1st two companies in this bag-holding series. Since FUBO announced its recent decision to shut down its gaming division, I honestly considered selling my entire position. After all, one of the reasons I initially invested in FUBO and continue to hold onto it, was the sports betting segment. Furthermore, I was reviewing another streaming giant. Financially, it was a much better company in terms of valuation. There are also many short term catalysts - (1) Recent Walmart+ membership partnership, (2) success of Top Gun Maverick, along with (3) their launch in Italy. Lets' not forget Buffet also took up a $3bn stake in the company. However, after watching these interviews ( 1 , 2 and 3 ) , and just 1  podcast from FUBO

Bag-holding Company 1: Digital Turbine (APPS)

Ok – I am starting a new series on the companies that I am Bag-holding . Every article is meant to be brief. With little mention of the fundamentals or valuation, I will concentrate on my justifications and the risks in the near term. This is because my average price will unquestionably be substantially higher than the share price at the moment. Thus, I'd prefer to instead concentrate on the qualitative characteristics of the company. The first company that I am will be reviewing is Digital Turbine (APPS). I used to be super bullish on this company and has written numerous articles on it. Although I am bullish right now, it would benefit me more if I bought the firm now at its current share price rather than holding it at my average share price, since I believe it is definitely much more undervalued right now! Logo taken from Digital Turbine Website Reasons for HODL-ing 1. Single Tap Growth.  Management has spoken extensively about Single Tap, with partners like Samsung, Telefonica

uSMART - The SMART-er Plan for the uncertainties ahead!

In our previous article from April , we covered how uSMART is a fuss free trading platform suitable for investors. Recently, uSMART has further upped the ease in which a young adult can invest through their new SMART Plan feature. It is our belief that the best way to learn about investing and financial markets is through putting your own money to work. However, as a new investor starting out, you have experienced: Minimum fees being charged forming a huge proportion of your investment quantum and The inertia of logging into a trading platform at regular intervals, and manually keying in orders each time you want to make an investment. The SMART Plan helps you overcome these 2 main hurdles to enable a smoother and more efficient investing process. uSMART SMART Plan uSMART SMART Plan is an auto investing feature within the uSMART platform that helps you to invest a fixed sum on a regular basis, allowing you to steadily build up your investment portfolio, even if you do not have a huge l

A Company To Hold During A Recession!

As stated previously, I wanted to write about this Singapore civil construction firm that is almost a net-net firm, which I currently already owned. Although it is in a very unpopular industry that is deem to be low margin, but there are a lot of positive for the company going on right now! The reasons are as follows: 1. A Profitable Company with its Market Cap is below its Net Current Asset Value. This meant that its current asset is able to cover all its liabilities and is still very close to its share price! In addition, the company is profitable with no debt. Balance Sheet taken from its latest HY report 2. Almost S$1 bn of order book right now! The company was recently awarded 2 civil construction contracts that bought their order book to almost S$1 bn! Civil construction projects maybe deem to have low margins. However, this order book should be seen as a positive tailwind given the company is an experienced civil contractor and these projects are tied to the Singapore Government

Opportunities in Big Tech Companies!

Fed just increased interest rates by 75 basis points yesterday, with a potential fed rate of 4% to 4.5% by year's end. Yesterday's market was highly red as a result of this. However, I believe that this time is ripe with opportunity on the Big Tech firms. It has been some time since we seem such low valuations for the Big Tech firms. Image from faangpath website In my opinion, there will still be a year-end rally in 2022 because of the mid-term elections on 8 November 2022 and the World Cup on 20 November 2022 . As a result, this increases the allure of these Big Tech's current valuation. At the end of the day, if there is a short-term rally, I think the Big Tech companies will recover the quickest. Even without a rally, holding onto these Big Tech firms in 2023 may be preferable if a recession does happen. However, given that we were aware that Big Tech companies have repurchase programs in place, why has there been no support from these companies? One of the reasons I re

Portfolio and Life Updates

Hi Everybody, My last article was almost two months ago. Numerous things had occurred and much had changed. In July, I switched to a new start-up. Even though I had only been there for two months, it had already felt like a long time. My brain cells were nearly completely depleted each day due to the fast-paced work environment, which is why I lack the energy to do anything after work. After work, I essentially felt like a zombie. Hopefully, as I get used to the fast-pace environment, I will be able to find more time to write. In addition, there was lately another family emergency. But now everything is back to normal. These experiences have made me wish to spend more time with my loved ones each day once I go home. Thus, there is even less time to blog. But today I did manage to find some time. So let me update my portfolio since it also underwent numerous adjustments. Before that, I'd like to thank uSMART in advance for the mooncake, cup, and plush dolphin! The soft toy is a big

STI ETF to fall to S$1.953?

Note: I am not trying to spread FUD here. I am just doing some research and thought it was a good topic to write about. To combat inflation, the Fed has been raising rates. The current Federal Reserve rate ranges from 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. The Fed is expected to raise  rates from 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent by the end of 2022. This has resulted in a bear market in the United States and predictions of a possible recession. As a result, investors are seeking a safe haven in which to invest. The STI Index is seen as a safe haven by some. This is implied by the 0.63 percent YTD decrease in the STI vs. the 19.3 percent drop in the SPY ETF, as shown below. SPY vs STI. Screenshot from Yahoo Finance My Chain of Thoughts: 1. Many investors are drawn to the SG market because of the prospective dividend payout. Currently, based on its current price, STI provides a potential 3% dividend yield .  2. SSB is now giving 2% for a one-year holding period and 3% for a ten-year holding period. 3.

Series of Thoughts on Recession

Recession/Stagflation is Coming!  First and foremost, I believe I was wrong when I stated that there is no recession .  But what exactly is a recession? How do you know a recession is on its way? Negative growth for 2 quarters? Do you understand what a recession is? Have you tried applying for jobs for more than a year and still have no work, and you need the government to step in to ensure that there is at least 1 job that is sponsored by them and only pays S$2k for 1 year? I DID. In addition, I had to pay my tuition loan at that time ON MY OWN.  So really, I don't think many of you understand recession at this point. Ever Been Thru the Cycle where Oil went from $4 to $20? Yes, clearly someone did, and the message was relayed to me. I was advised to SELL EVERYTHING. The war is mostly to blame for the rise in oil prices. Even after the war is over, oil prices will remain high due to sanctions. This will lead to ongoing inflationary pressures and, eventually, higher interest rates.

Digital Turbine (APPS): Look Beyond The Short Term Pains For Amazing Gains

This is infuriating. Seeking Alpha has rejected my article yet again. So, if I post about the same company again, it must be a quarterly update or justified by a change in the firm's story or my investment thesis. But, unless I'm trading, why would I update the story or thesis on a quarterly basis? My main motivation for writing this article was to reaffirm my opinion on the company now that the price has dropped substantially, and to address points that others may have overlooked. Feedback from SeekingAlpha So, once more... I'll post the article here for everyone to read (my 16th article on Digital Turbine as per my 10x Potential Series ) . Please aid by liking and sharing till SeekingAlpha understands my grievances. I worked on this article for several days. I also hope this helps to keep investors calm in this harsh market. Enjoy! Investment Thesis This is a follow up to my post on Digital Turbine (APPS). Since then, the share price has dropped 54%, doubts over Digital