Showing posts from 2021

Worst Case Scenario of Pledge-Sell-Farm

With regards to my most recent strategy post - Pledge-Sell-Farm - someone by the nick of Corgitator actually wrote a long comment in InvestingNote  as per quoted below as well: "High conviction =/= high returns because hey, even the best investors make mistakes. In fact, it's the high conviction ideas that you get wrong which kill your portfolio (i.e. It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so). And if one is that certain that the company will definitely do well (nothing is definite though, investing is after all just a handicapping game), then just buying LEAPs on those companies will make you way more than writing puts and reinvesting the premiums in blue chips. Also, the strategy is what I call picking pennies in front of steamroller strategy (just like all naked option writing strategies and their variants). Your hit rate will be high, but when you do make a mistake, the damage is immense. Imagine this scenario:

New Strategy: Pledge-Sell-Farm

If you do not have FAANG in your portfolio, I guess your portfolio will be in the red. And it is damn red, like mine. In 2022, I believe the US market will also have significant volatility due to the tapering and potential interest rate rise. It may just continue to be range-bound. Many of us that invested in growth stocks will continue to be bag-holding. For those, like me, who also invested in the China Giants, will not know how long we need to be bag-holding as well. So what am I going to do? In 2022, I have decided to use part of my portfolio on this strategy where I will "Pledge, Sell and Farm".  It is a strategy that I innovated after watching Chicken Genius YouTube Video below. If you have not watch it yet, here it is.  Chicken Genius YouTube Video Screenshot The main idea is as follows: Pledge - Pledge a group of companies in our portfolio to ourselves for 1 year , which we do not mind liquidating if required after 1 year. If this sound stupid, the idea is just to t

Why Is The Market Down-Trending?

Before I start writing on the topic, I just liked to inform you that I had probably written my 2 MOST extensive and in-depth articles on a company on Medium - and that is definitely on my highest conviction company - Digital Turbine Inc (APPS).  Please read Part 1 and Part 2 here. A warning to you - these are over 10 mins read. That is how long it is. One important point that was not written and I just found out lately from their latest interview with Oppenheimer is that Digital Turbine is currently working with Meta on SingleTap! This will be amazing! Nevertheless, I will greatly appreciate if you could follow me on Medium as well. Thank you. Back to the topic... I have been wanting to write this post because this will remind the future me of my answers - whenever this question pops up in my head. When there is much fear in the market, there is always a few recurring questions - like "Why a particular company share price has been down trending?", "Why the economy so

The Cryptocurrency that will Fulfill its Potential in the Mass Market

Since my last post , I decided to try to understand more about Cryptocurrency. So I went on to ask my friend, whom is definitely more knowledge in the field of Cryptocurrency than me, a question that has always been on my mind:  "Which is the cryptocurrency that will fulfill its potential in the mass market?" He went on to write a whole article on this and I decided to share it on my blog. Do note that I know cryptocurrency is a subjective topic and depending on how one interpret this question, everyone will probably has a different choice and different opinion. Thus, I will suggest that everyone reads with an open mind. I read twice in order to understand it. Guest Post: The Decentralised Stablecoin, UST. No one uses Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana to pay for things. But people do use stablecoins like USDC & USDT to pay for things. Let’s discuss a stablecoin that’s aiming to become the best.  $UST, Terra USD is project that aims to build a better stablecoin, or a better US D

TUB Snippets 3: Metech International Limited

I have so far written 2 TUB Snippets .  I have sold Tapestry Inc for a 20% profit. I have also sold FSL with a 10% profit once the dividend comes in. I am still holding on to the rest of the companies. For this article, I just like to talk a bit more on Metech International Limited by attempting to predict the possible revenue in 2022 for its new business in lab-grown diamond.  After all, the company has already established numerous relationship around the globe and will have started producing the diamonds as of end Dec 21. The Revenue Formula is: Number of Diamond produced per machine X Number of Carat per Diamond X Success Rate X Number of Times the Machine Can Run in 1 Year (i.e 52 weeks) X Number of Machines Bought By The Company X Price per Diamond per Carat X USD/SGD Exchange Rate Metech Intl Press Release Taken from Alibaba Website Taken from Walters and Hogsett website Taken from with clarity website. Based on the information above: Number of Diamond produced per machine - 100 

String of Thoughts On Metaverse / NFT / Digital Currency [On-Going]

This will be a string of my on-going strings of thoughts on Metaverse, NFT and Digital Currency (cryptocurrency) . I just like to have a post to consolidate my thoughts on these 3 Topics - in order to understand more about the future (and if I forget) .  Anyone who want to join this discussion can place your comments in the comment box below and NOT any of the comments on various platforms that this post appears. This will allow a consolidation of thoughts. 22 Nov 21 Metaverse 1. Metaverse require NFT and digital currency to work. 2. Digital Currency might or might not be Crypto Currency. It can be just a currency within the ecosystem. 3. A metaverse is like a planet. In future, there will be numerous "planets" to form a metaverse "universe". 4. FB will not produce the whole universe. It will only be one of the "planet". NFT 5. A NFT developer can earn a recurring % from every transaction on that specific NFT that he created. For example if person A create

On Medium and Update On Top 10 Positions

Hi all,  I will be utilizing as a spin off from my Blog for my exclusive write up – The 10X Potential.   It is basically a write up on companies that I am VESTED in and believes that the company has a 10X potential. These companies could be a recent investment or an existing long-term position. Don't worry, judging from my frequency in writing, I don't think I will be writing more than 2 articles under the Medium profile. Thus, it will be free for you regardless. Nevertheless, I appreciate if you could follow me on Medium - Help me hit 100 followers! Do read up on my first article under my Medium Profile - An introduction to The 10X Potential So now for  the details of the Top 10 Positions and some portfolio updates... 1. Tencent (0700) - 14.5% 2. Digital Turbine (APPS) - 11.4% 3. Cerence Inc (CRNC) - 9.0% 4. Alibaba (9988) - 8.1% 5. Hut 8 Mining (HUT) - 7.8% 6. Palantir (PLTR) - 6.3% 7. Disney (DIS) - 6.0% 8. FuboTV (FUBO) - 5.8% 9. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial

At Last, From to Custom Domain!

I just like to announced that I have made the move to having a Custom Domain!  Haha... it sure took a long while before I do that. Been advised by many to make this change, but I have been delaying. Nevertheless, I wanted to be "a bit" more serious about my writing. So decided this was the time to make the changes. However, My Google Adsense Account has not been reflecting well on this custom domain and its not showing up. If anyone can help, do comment. I read that I needed to wait 45 days and then reapply to my Google Adsense account. Hopefully things work out eventually. Do note that I do not earn much from the Google Adsense Account. I have received very very very very little only for so many years of writing. But every cent counts right? Anyway, there will probably more updates in the future on my plans.  See ya!

APPS Target Price

Without knowing, I realized I had written over 6 articles on Digital Turbine aka APPS. I could probably write another post on "20 points of APPS" .  But for this post, I want to try something different. I want to try to find out the "Target Price" (TP) for APPS.  The reason for doing this is that the share price of APPS has been going on a strong uptrend since 31 Aug 21. It is a bit too fast too furious for my liking, for which I am getting uncomfortable with APPS being my 2nd biggest holding in my portfolio. However, before I start, I like to define what I mean by TP. Ignore what everyone else say.   IMO, it is a subjective figure, a self-fulfilling prophecy, a figure that makes an investor feel better when we are bag-holding, and it should be as high as possible, till the point where we think this is ridiculous and you will want to sell.   With that, I will be having 2 approaches towards calculating the TP: Comparison against its peers using the average PS, PE,

Is A Company Culture Important In Investing?

Basically lately I had a poll in 2 different telegram groups - Fundamental Scorecard (my own's Telegram) and Invest for the Long Term (Boon Tee's Telegram Group) .  I was questioning if a company culture is an important factor in our investment thesis.  The main reason behind the question was that I used to look at Glassdoor rating as a consideration when I was choosing a company. But recently, there is a company that I was interested in that had a very bad Glassdoor Rating. That made me wonder if I should ignore it. Result from "Invest for the Long Term" Result from "Fundamental Scorecard" Thus, the poll results shows that more than 50% of Investors that participated in the poll stated that at least a company culture will have at least a 50% weightage in their investment decision making . This mean that if a company has a bad culture, technically you will ignore it. Nevertheless, the argument against the results were also significant - meaning it does not

TUB Snippets 2: SGX Companies

If you have read my old posts, you will know I still invest in SGX Companies. But since I have gotten into shorter term active trading, these are some of the SGX companies that I am VESTED IN for potential short term investment period. 1. Asian Pay Television Trust (Vested at S$0.132) Major shareholder shift as of 2021. As of Jul 21 – A press release was announced: "NCC (National Communications Commission of Taiwan) rejects Da Da Digital’s proposed transaction to acquire 65% indirect interest in the Trustee-Manager of APTT NCC’s decision has no impact on the operations and cash flows of APTT or TBC, nor the distribution guidance of 1.0 Singapore cent per unit for 2021 Araedis Investment Pte. Ltd., an associate of Da Da Digital, has been increasing its stake in APTT; remains committed to growing its partnership with APTT and TBC." The company is also involved in providing broadband services in Taiwan, and as per Q2 FY21 Report: "TBC remains on track to ca

TUB Snippets 1: Tapestry Inc (TPR)

Prior to talking about <Company 6>. I decided to start a new series on this blog called “TUB Snippets”. It will be a short and simple analysis that I did on companies I had looked at. As I revealed in my post on my portfolio, I have a 3 rd portfolio for active trading and also many small positions in the 3 portfolios (25% of the combined portfolio in 17 companies) . I realize as the economy move forward, there are many long term opportunities as well as short term opportunities. Thus, I will do small pockets of fast trading/short term trading (3 to 6 months) to take advantage of possible short term positive effects. Short term opportunities come from news or sudden mispricing, due to misreading of financials, or short-term economic shift – such as the energy crisis now, inflation crisis and the upcoming festive season. 1 of the opportunities was Waitr Holdings Inc (WTRH) . Screenshot from Finviz To keep the story short, the company intend to change the business model fro

2021 Strategy Series - Company 8 that starts with H

Vested with an initial share price of US$7.25 and an average share price at US$6.81 (including premiums over 10 options) Read till the end to know the name of Company 8. After my last blog post, there seem to be more people asking about <Company 8> rather than <Company 6>. Maybe because 8 means 发 (Fa/Huat/Prosperity) in Chinese? Thus, for this post I will be revealing Company 8 first and it will be called “8” in this post. Part 1 – What the Company Does? As per Seekingalpha, “8 operates as a cryptocurrency mining company in North America. The company engages in industrial scale bitcoin mining operations. It also owns and operates 38 BlockBoxes in Drumheller, Alberta; and 56 BlockBoxes in Medicine Hat, Alberta. The company is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.” Yes – it is a crypto-mining firm and an industry I had specifically chosen. This is because there was still no ETF on cryptocurrency and I cannot buy Grayscale BTC on Tiger. Furthermore, I am too lazy to

Top 10 Position In My PortfolioS

It’s been a long while as I update my blog. You can deem this as a return to writing till my “energy” runs out again. Market been volatile, so have my portfolio. Therefore, for this post, its probably time to talk a bit more about my portfolios and the top 10 positions. The Background of My PortfolioS For those that still do not know, I had 2 portfolio s .  As I had explained previously, one of them is solely US companies, and the other is a mixture of SG and US companies. What I did not state is that the one solely with US companies has a 3-year period. The one with a mixture of SG/US companies has a 10-year period. However, over time, both portfolios have changed. The timeline remains the same. But both of them currently has a mixture of US, SG and HK companies. In addition, I started a 3 rd portfolio that will consist solely of US companies lasting till Dec 21. This portfolio is a trading/active management experiment portfolio. Since starting in 30 Aug 21, I have lost 45%

Let's Talk EP2: OTS Holdings Released Their FY21 Full Year Results

Please read till the end for a SPECIAL SURPRISE! Since the last article as of 15 Jun 21, OTS has released its full year result. SAC Capital has subsequently provided a “Buy” rating on them with a price target of 40 cents (SAC Target, not mine) as per article . As quoted in the article, these are the interesting pointers that I like to highlight: “…Earnings excluding IPO expenses would have been 13.9% higher y-o-y at $4.0 million. Revenue for the period was 11.5% higher at $38.5 million…” “… OTS made inroads into Malaysian foodservice sector in early 2020 before Covid-19 hit. It plans to commence sales in the Philippines in Nov 2021 to take on competitor brand SPAM. In Indonesia, it has a 50:50 JV with Salim Group to produce and sell processed meat products…” Furthermore, I will like to add the following 2 points: 1. Many investors tend to miss this – but if we look at the cashflow generated from the operating activities, it is a significant increase of over 300%! This is mainly due to

Be Aggressive

Short Post. So... I guess a lot has happened over the last few weeks, especially with CCP on the HK stock market and US market since earning season. My portfolio has been on stagnating for a while. For those that know how my fund is formed, I was told to be more aggressive. Thus, that is what will be happening - I will be making significant changes to my portfolio. I will be selling all my Singtel position (No worries, selling into gains) and also be selling UVE - a position that I finally decided its time to move on.  I will use the funds and average down into S$0.10 and Alibaba, as well as some of my US positions. Just felt I had to informed all. See you on the next post! More information on APPS are being shared in the Fundamental Scorecard Telegram Group (please google for the links!). So if you are interested to know more, please join us in the Telegram Group.

APPS FUD or Risk?

Vested with average share price of US$46 (with an initial share price of US$38.30 and also the use of options). As per Wikipedia, Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (often shortened to FUD) is a propaganda tactic used in sales, marketing, public relations, politics, polling and cults. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear. I don’t want people to think I only want to hype up Digital Turbine (APPS) . All investment has risk. It just that I felt there are too many positives going for APPS and the share price trending down right now seems unjustified. By looking at the high sales volume from 9 Aug onwards (more than the regular 1+m to 2m shares traded) and along with the comments and information from Reddit and Seeking Alpha, it is hard to believe these sale volumes is from retailers. I believe most of it should be from institutions, and then retailers actually followed. As per Y

20 Catalysts On Digital Turbine's Future Growth

I don’t know why Digital Turbine (APPS) has been on the downtrend since their latest financial announcement. There could be 101 reasons that the company has been trending downwards. One of the most “believable” reason I heard is that the privacy issue is still up in the air in US, especially with Apple already launching iOS 14. Investors always do not like uncertainty and how this “privacy” affect the AdTech industry is still uncertain. But I like it and I have been buying on the dip. I have mentioned about APPS significantly on this blog already. Thus, I will just put some pointers about APPS (that I never mention before) , the latest transcript, on Fyber and Adcolony. So here it goes… 1.        Gross Margin – One of the main misunderstanding of APPS is its low Gross Margin (as compared to other AdTech firms) . The reason is because for every $3 APPS earn, $1 goes to OEM, $1 goes to Operator, $1 goes to APPS.   2.        Business Model & Competition – Due to this, inv